what are the CHANCES of a DIVII team move up?

[GATORFAN#001]

not really sure on how all that works , so im asking if there are any chances that any DivII teams get bumped up to Div I this year?

[DeCav]

I'm like you dude. I have not availed myself of the time and discipline it takes to get a total grasp on the whole system.

Here's what I think is going on though roughly...

There seems to be no doubt that a non-big 16 school will move up to Div 1 simply because there are some big 16 schools who play horrible football and can't make the playoffs. I'm thinking I've heard throughout the year that the number of big 16 schools that don't make the playoffs will be about 5?

That will put schools into Div 1 that are ahead of Northwestern and Goose Creek but aren't as competitive. Look at the ADM numbers and look at the schools from about #17 to #21 or 22 and I'm guessing those will be the schools that make it in assuming they made the playoffs.

I've probably totally mangled all the logic here and hopefully SF, EHS, and 74 will set me straight.

[Rebel-Fan-74]

The rules can be found at http://www.schsl.org in the AAAA Handbook but here are the basics...

The top four (4) eligible teams from Regions I, II, & III (12 teams)
and the top three (3) eligible teams from Regions IV, V, VI, VII, & VIII (15 teams)
Five (5) additional “at large” teams will make up the 32 teams.

NOTE: there is nothing at all so far to say BIG 16, Division One, Division Two. Simply based on REGION PLAY and five teams that earn the most points but didn't qualify via Region Finish. Only 9 games count when it comes to points, whether you are talking seeding or gaining an AT LARGE berth. NINE GAMES.

After the thirty-two (32) teams are selected, the sixteen largest schools by enrollment of the thirty-two selected will compete for the Division I State Championship. So only after you have determined the 32 will you know who is Division One and who is Division Two.

So let us look at those ahead of Goose Creek to see where you will play, since there is really no "MOVING UP" when it comes right down to it...

If you see a 1,2,3,4 in the POS box below, that means I'm projecting them to get an automatic bid and thus be in the playoffs. My latest projection has 14 teams "ahead of you" = larger enrollments getting in the playoffs.

So that narrows it down to two spots for "at large" teams ahead of you...
Mauldin is almost guaranteed enough points to get an "at large" so that leaves one spot in Division One

So in order of size:
West Ashley, maybe, maybe not really close
Ashley Ridge has to get the #3 slot or they are out
Clover - NEXT
Unless Carolina Forest gets the Region VI automatic bid #3 they are out.
White Knoll - right on the line for projected points, would get in with some help
Spartanburg - Almost a given they are in and right now I'm showing them in Division One last week it was Division Two.

I see VERY SLIGHT chance that Goose Creek will be Division One. I'm saying the line in the sand will be at #20. Question is does 20 move up or is 20 the largest school in Division Two?


Did that help any? Or just make it worse?

[GATORFAN#001]

The rules can be found at http://www.schsl.org in the AAAA Handbook but here are the basics...

The top four (4) eligible teams from Regions I, II, & III (12 teams)
and the top three (3) eligible teams from Regions IV, V, VI, VII, & VIII (15 teams)
Five (5) additional “at large” teams will make up the 32 teams.

NOTE: there is nothing at all so far to say BIG 16, Division One, Division Two. Simply based on REGION PLAY and five teams that earn the most points but didn't qualify via Region Finish. Only 9 games count when it comes to points, whether you are talking seeding or gaining an AT LARGE berth. NINE GAMES.

After the thirty-two (32) teams are selected, the sixteen largest schools by enrollment of the thirty-two selected will compete for the Division I State Championship. So only after you have determined the 32 will you know who is Division One and who is Division Two.

So let us look at those ahead of Goose Creek to see where you will play, since there is really no "MOVING UP" when it comes right down to it...

If you see a 1,2,3,4 in the POS box below, that means I'm projecting them to get an automatic bid and thus be in the playoffs. My latest projection has 14 teams "ahead of you" = larger enrollments getting in the playoffs.

So that narrows it down to two spots for "at large" teams ahead of you...
Mauldin is almost guaranteed enough points to get an "at large" so that leaves one spot in Division One

So in order of size:
West Ashley, maybe, maybe not really close
Ashley Ridge has to get the #3 slot or they are out
Clover - NEXT
Unless Carolina Forest gets the Region VI automatic bid #3 they are out.
White Knoll - right on the line for projected points, would get in with some help
Spartanburg - Almost a given they are in and right now I'm showing them in Division One last week it was Division Two.

I see VERY SLIGHT chance that Goose Creek will be Division One. I'm saying the line in the sand will be at #20. Question is does 20 move up or is 20 the largest school in Division Two?


Did that help any? Or just make it worse?

yeah it did and thanks Reb74

[Rebel-Fan-74]

yeah it did and thanks Reb74

I tried to be as clear as mud! It gets deep at times, but it is the system we have to work with for now...

[DeCav]

We may need Simon Singh or Malcolm Gladwell (or both.)

[EHSMeanGreen]

I agree with what Rebel-Fan-74 posted, started on this before he had commented
Just another way of posting the same info.


Right now (in my projection) the Big 16 schools not making the playoffs.
1. Clover- OUT
2. Carolina Forest- ("IF" they win 2 of their last 3 they will make the playoffs-automatic bid- 3rd in Region 6)
3. Ashley Ridge (if they beat Beaufort they could score enough points to make playoffs, I have them barely out by losing to Beaufort)

IN DANGER
4. West Ashley (might score enough to make playoffs, I have them barely making the playoffs by 0.5 pt)

Should be in the playoffs
5. Wando (likely in the playoffs as #3 in Region 7, they have to beat Cane Bay)
6. Sumter (beat CF and Conway and they are #2 in Regon 6)


Likely moving to D1 bracket
17...ROCK HILL...
18...WHITE KNOLL...
19...LEXINGTON... (will only go to D2 bracket if AR, (either West Ashley/Wando) and (either CF/Sumter) make playoffs)

IN DANGER
20...SPARTANBURG...(determined by what AR, West Ashley, Wando, and CF/Sumter do)

Likely Staying in D2 bracket (would only be bumped if 5 of the Big 16 teams mentioned don't make the playoffs)
21...STRATFORD...

22...GOOSE CREEK...(heading to D2 bracket)

[bruindad79]

I agree with what Rebel-Fan-74 posted, started on this before he had commented
Just another way of posting the same info.


Right now (in my projection) the Big 16 schools not making the playoffs.
1. Clover- OUT
2. Carolina Forest- ("IF" they win 2 of their last 3 they will make the playoffs-automatic bid- 3rd in Region 6)
3. Ashley Ridge (if they beat Beaufort they could score enough points to make playoffs, I have them barely out by losing to Beaufort)

IN DANGER
4. West Ashley (might score enough to make playoffs, I have them barely making the playoffs by 0.5 pt)

Should be in the playoffs
5. Wando (likely in the playoffs as #3 in Region 7, they have to beat Cane Bay)
6. Sumter (beat CF and Conway and they are #2 in Regon 6)


Likely moving to D1 bracket
17...ROCK HILL...
18...WHITE KNOLL...
19...LEXINGTON... (will only go to D2 bracket if AR, (either West Ashley/Wando) and (either CF/Sumter) make playoffs)

IN DANGER
20...SPARTANBURG...(determined by what AR, West Ashley, Wando, and CF/Sumter do)

Likely Staying in D2 bracket (would only be bumped if 5 of the Big 16 teams mentioned don't make the playoffs)
21...STRATFORD...

22...GOOSE CREEK...(heading to D2 bracket)

Stratford had better start sweating... The top three for all intensive purposes are out, I see Cane Bay upsetting Wando, West Ashley is very iffy from what I'm told and Sumter depends on if they show up to the game or not...

[movethesticks]

Cane Bay is horrible. Wando should beat them easily.

Upset alert: South Florence over Stratford.
* Stratford has a hard time stopping quality offenses that like to spread them out.
* Knights may get caught overlooking SF and thinking too much about Week 11 date with GC.

West Ashley has Stratford this week, then Goose Creek on Thurs nite. Need to stay healthy and get 6th win vs Cane Bay.

Dutch Fork over Lexington. North Augusta over Dutch Fork.

[Rebel-Fan-74]

Stratford had better start sweating... The top three for all intensive purposes are out, I see Cane Bay upsetting Wando, West Ashley is very iffy from what I'm told and Sumter depends on if they show up to the game or not...

Sumter would have to lose out to not get into the playoffs... Conway, Carolina Forest? and if Carolina Forest gets in, they are Division One.

Wando or West Ashley one of these will get the #3 bid from their Region so at least one is in.

Spartanburg is the team on the bubble right now. I'm not saying there is "NO WAY" Stratford plays in Division One, I'm just saying it is more likely that Spartanburg plays in Division Two than Stratford plays in Division One.

How ironic that Region VI could be the KEY to determining the cut line this season?