My Upset Special

[movethesticks]

Has a 16 seed ever upset a 1 seed ?

Checking the SCHSL archives, dating back to the 2000 season, the top seed has never lost to a bottom seed. However there were a couple of scares. In 2002, top seed Berkeley squeezed by South Aiken 24-21, and in 2005 Spring Valley held off Conway 15-14. Besides those games, most opening games were blowouts.

After extensive research, I believe we may see one this year: #16 Gaffney can upset #1 Fort Dorchester.

History has a way of repeating itself. One team is a storied program with multiple state championships that have been through the wars. The other, not so much.

Let's take a closer look.

Fort Dorchester 2003-14 (LaPrad became HC of FD in 2003)

Record: 78-69 (0-13 in 2007, ineligible player) http://www.postandcourier.com/article/2 ... /311309985" target="_blank
Playoff record: 4-8

Notes:
FD has never won 2 playoffs games in one season since 2003.
FD has lost opening round playoff games 5 times, won one game twice.
FD has only hosted two playoffs games (1-1)
FD is 1-3 in playoffs after losing last regular season game
FD is 1-3 vs Upper State teams, last win was in 2003

Gaffney Indians 2003-14

Record: 123-42
Playoff record: 26-7
State Titles: 4

Notes: Since 2003
Gaffney has only lost opening round game once in last 10 seasons
Gaffney is 1-0 on the road in opening playoff games, beating Summerville 40-10 in 2008.
Gaffney is 15-2 vs lowcountry teams in the playoffs
Gaffney is 4-2 on the road vs lowcountry teams

Fort D has posted their best regular season total this year at 9-2. Impressive wins over South Florence, Cane Bay, and Stratford to open the season undefeated at 4-0. FD was shut out at home by Goose Creek 17-0 on a wet and soggy field. They also made a change at QB following that loss with freshman D Joyner, who has guided FD to a 5-1 record down the stretch. However their offensive production dropped off, but the defense continued to play well. Except the last game of the season when FD yielded 42 points to Ashley Ridge.

Gaffney posted their worst record in memory, going 4-7. However, all four wins came in region play that got the Indians into the playoffs. Gaffney started the season 0-5 before posting their first win at Nation Ford, 59-21. Gaffney closed out the season going 4-2, with a quality win over Northwestern in the last regular season game.

I believe this game will be close with Gaffney pulling it out late.

[COUGARS]

This game has nothing to do with history..... Gaffney is.just the better team. The had a few close games in the early part of the season. I watched them play Byrnes and the we're by far the best 0-5 team I have ever seen. Expect them to go deep in the playoffs.

[GoBigGreen]

Nice post MoveTheSticks! I must agree that if you look at both teams history that the edge goes in the Injuns favor. However, at some point the Patriots are going to step up and get that surprise win in the playoffs. I believe that they have a good shot at doing that this Friday as many are picking Gaffney to pull the upset. You can bet they will have plenty of locker room material to get them inspired, as if playing in the first round against a perennial powerhouse is not enough. They too need to stay focused on the game at hand and not look down the road at possible matchups. If I was not going to be in Summerville watching my team take on Sumter, I would certainly be attending this game. I do think it will be a great game to watch with an awesome atmosphere. It will be interesting to see how many fans Gaffney brings to town. Fort D will have their normal rowdy group which will make for a fun evening of watching some high school football playoff action. Gaffney got their 1st win over a team with a winning record this past Friday. They have went 2-2 in the last 4 games, lose one, win one, lose one, win one....hmmmm, what would be next?

[dfactor26]

I can understand why are some are predicting this as an upset, but I don't see what history has to do with anything, especially in high school football where each year is usually a very different team. If this game is going to be played based on playoff history then yeah...Gaffney will win. Thankfully all those interesting numbers and records you posted have as much to do with this game as the weather in Cleveland does. Gaffney might win the game on Friday, but it won't be because of their playoff record, it will be because they outplayed Fort Dorchester.

[uknowit]

Unless Fort Dorchester waltzed through the season with an easy schedule, and a bad team, I don't see it. The name Gaffney scares folks. But they haven't been very good this year. Found lightening in a bottle against NW, or some suggest NW sort of allowed them to find that lightening in a bottle. But with the exception of last week, nothing says that Gaffney should threaten a legitimate #1 seed on the road.

[bruindad79]

I can understand why are some are predicting this as an upset, but I don't see what history has to do with anything, especially in high school football where each year is usually a very different team. If this game is going to be played based on playoff history then yeah...Gaffney will win. Thankfully all those interesting numbers and records you posted have as much to do with this game as the weather in Cleveland does. Gaffney might win the game on Friday, but it won't be because of their playoff record, it will be because they outplayed Fort Dorchester.

Well said...I completely agree.

[trojangrad78]

Don't put too much stock into Gafney's thrashing of NW last Friday night.

NW could not have played much worse. Gaffney played outstanding and the offensive play selection was spot on. It was almost as if the NW offensive coaches were calling the plays against their own defense....after knowing exactly what the defensive set was going to be.

I still am not sure Gaffney is all-of-a-sudden an awesome team, but we sure made them look like it!!

As for Gaffney, having played Region 2 and Region 3 teams, they have been exposed to a lot. Maybe the question is what does Fort D bring that Gaffney has not already seen and or experienced? I don't know.

I do think that Fort D's potential run through the playoffs can be judged a lot better when this game is completed.

Is this going to be another Upper State vs Lower State game for regional bragging rights? Probably so....at least for a day or two!